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Why don't we follow the science?

Vincent

Administrator
Staff member
#1
In the beginning, we knew nothing, this virus could kill 50% of 20 year olds, the rest of us could be history... we thought that the NHS could be crippled... we wouldn't be able to cope.

But then...

The science caught up. The average age of people dying of the disease was 82. I learned last week that, if your are 14, then you are more likely to die by being struck by lightning. If you are less than 60 and in reasonable health, then you are more likely to die in a car accident. (would you close down the economy, and ruin peoples livelihood to stop people driving?)

The WHO (World Health Organisation) did not recommend lockdowns. But yet, we followed the Chinese... a communist regimen.

And now, we are playing hide and seek with the virus.... definition of madness? Keep doing the same thing, and expecting a different result. The lockdowns have not worked. Every time we come out, it resurges.

Let those who are vulnerable, and those who FEEL vulnerable isolate, and let the rest of society get on with their lives. It WON'T kill 99.97 of us. If you feel that you are vulnerable, isolate, get people to do your shopping, whatever. The rest of us... get on with it.

For me, it wasn't even a mild cold.. yes, I've had it, and for those who say, you can't do that, you will be taking it back to granny..... ISOLATE her in the first place, and ENSURE that you don't take it back to granny. When you have had it, three weeks later you can visit, and give her a kiss, and the hug she deserves.

It's not rocket science, is it just me? Am I missing something?

Oh, and one more thing. Which is so glaringly bleedin' obvious to me, and confirmed by a number of "gold standard" "Double Blind, Placebo, controlled trials. Vitamin D, has a great role to play.

1. It has been shown to be "Seasonal". We don't get the sun in the winter.
2. Black people are more susceptible.... their skin does not absorb vitamin D as good as white people, in Africa, they get MUCH more sun.
3. Obese people are more susceptible.... vitamin D is stored in fat cells, therefore the more fat cells you have, the more you need to get into your blood system.

Take, 2000 IU of vitamin D per day, and you will not go into ICU if you get it, and you will not DIE of the disease either.

FFS, it's smacking you in the face and you can't see the correlation. between vitamin D and the Immune system, and it's ability to deal with this virus..

200 years ago, 1/2 of captain cooks men died of Scurvy. It was a disease of a lack of vitamin C. it took us 200 years for us "Limeys" to get our nickname. Once we learned what caused it, we took limes on the boats to keep the sailors healthy. 200 years to join the dots. We must learn from history, follow the science, do not listen to the "fear inducing media"

Happy 2021 to all...
Kind Regards
Vince.
 

DeadStick

Cross Country Pilot
#3
"Take, 2000 IU of vitamin D per day, and you will not go into ICU if you get it, and you will not DIE of the disease either."

Vince, I'm sure there is something in the Vitamin D theory and I started taking it months ago, but its not proven and Frankly I'm done with people claiming theories they've read as fact when they aren't
Saying taking Vit D will prevent death is a foolhardy message to transmit
 

Antoni

Cross Country Pilot
#4
I'm not even convinced that the vaccines are safe, but I'm open to persuasion.

(BTW, I've never ever been part of face-ache or twatter)
 

Mike Calvert

Moderator
Staff member
#5
Oh, and one more thing. Which is so glaringly bleedin' obvious to me, and confirmed by a number of "gold standard" "Double Blind, Placebo, controlled trials. Vitamin D, has a great role to play.

1. It has been shown to be "Seasonal". We don't get the sun in the winter.
2. Black people are more susceptible.... their skin does not absorb vitamin D as good as white people, in Africa, they get MUCH more sun.
3. Obese people are more susceptible.... vitamin D is stored in fat cells, therefore the more fat cells you have, the more you need to get into your blood system.
Correlation is not the same as Causation (y)

As you say, lets follow the science rather than the press - the scientists (at least here in the UK) agree that the role of Vitamin D in relation to Covid is unclear https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4912

For an interesting look at Politicians vs Covid there's the documentary 'Totally Under Control' available on BBC iPlayer - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000p36r/totally-under-control-trump-and-covid19

Interestingly, the documentary claims South Koreans followed the scientific advise from the outset, and had 500 deaths from Covid, contrasting to the b*llsh*t spouted by Trump and his government, and their deaths have exceeded 100,000

It's a sobering watch.

Truth is that Covid is an air-borne virus - they knew that from the outset, but due to fear of creating a panic over the lack of face masks, and fears about voters being unwilling to comply, they shied away from the truth for a more convenient but less effective approach - wash your hands.

The main thing the government is trying to do is keep infection rates below the level where the hospitals are overwhelmed as that threatens not just patients with covid, but everybody else needing treatment for non-covid health issues.

Lockdown is sh*t I agree, but unless they can persuade everybody to genuinely maintain social distance, to wear masks outdoors at all times, we're stuck with having to move at the pace of the slowest - that's society though :(
 

Dave Morton

Student Pilot
#6
I know directly a person who went into hospital for the treatment of a stroke, he's had heart problems for years plus he collected sepsis whilst in hospital and died, he did test positive for covid but showed no signs but the reason of death was put down as covid.
The figures for covid deaths include "people who have died for what ever reason within 28 days of testing positive" like my friend, which can't possibly give a real reflection on the actual covid death figures plus we're now into typical flu season of which many thousands unfortunately die year after year so how can we differentiate between covid deaths and flu deaths.
 
#7
Good topic Vince.

The 'extremely clinically vulnerable' are being recommended (and provided with) vitamin D by the NHS - [here], so they agree with you there.

One of the lessons I learnt at year one of university was that there are often multiple, potentially conflicting, locally optimum solutions to a complex problem. That means that if 'no action' is not an option a decision must be taken about which parameters to choose to optimise - that may include compromising between conflicting parameters. Put in very simple terms, the scientists say "our models predict this or that" with "this estimated margin of error", and "these are the potential effects of your various options". The politicians, our elected decision makers, then have to balance the conflicts according to their political priorities such as minimising deaths due to the disease or minimising the impact on the national economy or the effects of prevention measures on the education of our future tax payers. Due to the complexity of the situation it will always be possible to say "you should do this or that differently" and "I told you so".

As I understand it, one of the primary parameters applied in the Covid decision making was the capacity of the NHS hospitals to cope with the number of critically ill patients from the new disease. Now we have an effect of the science's increasing knowledge is that a higher proportion of intensive care patients are surviving into convalescence (so 'bed-blocking' if you will). We also have the effects of post-viral fatigue and 'long covid' taking up resources at the out-of-hospital stage.

<just seen Dave's post> indeed, sometimes determining if somebody's death was caused by Covid, tipped over the edge by Covid, or would have happened even without Covid, is rather a fine judgement to ask a busy doctor writing out a death certificate to make. At least "death within 28 days of a positive covid test" is a quick and consistent measure. The other consistent measure is 'excess deaths' over the previous rolling average - and that includes all causes of death from accident to disease to suicide.

I remember seeing the reports early in the epidemic that the priority was keeping the sickness rate down to within current NHS capability whilst building up NHS capability for the future. It was accepted then (as I recall) that there would be a longer tail but a lower peak, that being the critical factor at the time. They also warned us then that after summer the NHS would be back under pressure as the normal winter peak came around.

I'm impressed with the response overall but will be glad when I've had my jabs.
 
#8
Devil's advocate:

The science caught up. The average age of people dying of the disease was 82. I learned last week that, if your are 14, then you are more likely to die by being struck by lightning. If you are less than 60 and in reasonable health, then you are more likely to die in a car accident. (would you close down the economy, and ruin peoples livelihood to stop people driving?)
But you would choose to side step a car accident and or being struck by lightning, for sure, if you could. Worked on the TV coverage centenary of the beginning of WW I in Mons, learned about the first and last casualties of that war. I would like to side step dying weeks before a vaccine, in the same way as some died minutes or hours before the eleventh hour of the eleventh day...

Let those who are vulnerable, and those who FEEL vulnerable isolate, and let the rest of society get on with their lives. It WON'T kill 99.97 of us. If you feel that you are vulnerable, isolate, get people to do your shopping, whatever. The rest of us... get on with it.
This was tried in Sweden, and Norway did lockdown:

image_2020-12-29_192819.png

Anyone's perception of this is coloured by whether they are going to be asymptomatic, or meet the grim reaper after a less than pleasant stay in hospital. Boris was confident, but then he caught it...

For me, it wasn't even a mild cold.. yes, I've had it, and for those who say, you can't do that, you will be taking it back to granny..... ISOLATE her in the first place, and ENSURE that you don't take it back to granny. When you have had it, three weeks later you can visit, and give her a kiss, and the hug she deserves.
But you don't know how you'll be affected until you're asymptomatic, mild, hospitalised, ICU or dead. And then there's the possibility of long covid...

It's not rocket science, is it just me? Am I missing something?
No, it's mostly epidemiology, very much oversimplified. Rocket science is actually easier in some respects because once the equations have been worked out and stuffed into computers, there are much fewer grey areas than there are in the modelling of human behaviour and the spread of infectious diseases.

1. It has been shown to be "Seasonal". We don't get the sun in the winter.
We also don't gather inside so much in summer with all the windows closed and the air passing though other people's lungs being constantly recycled in a bid to keep the warmth in. A midsummer gathering in a covid safe pub then the same in late September with a cold evening showed me the difference in moisture content with the windows all closed... In the end we ate outside under a roof, completely different feeling in terms of what was being breathed in...

2. Black people are more susceptible.... their skin does not absorb vitamin D as good as white people, in Africa, they get MUCH more sun.
There are other factors like socio-economic ones or just plain (other) genetics. Living in crowded, multi generation accommodation, poorer diet, more at risk of diabetes... Plus over a long period, immunity builds up to common ailments in the locality. Ergo, West Africans have slightly higher immunity to malaria, and I could postulate (and have been shot down for) the lower incidence of colds and flu in warmer climates leading to a reduced immunity to them.

The reference work for this is "Guns, Germs and Steel" by Jared Diamond.

Take, 2000 IU of vitamin D per day, and you will not go into ICU if you get it, and you will not DIE of the disease either.
Recommended dosage from the NHS is 400IU/10 micrograms.

NHS UK said:
Taking too many vitamin D supplements over a long period of time can cause too much calcium to build up in the body (hypercalcaemia). This can weaken the bones and damage the kidneys and the heart.

If you choose to take vitamin D supplements, 10 micrograms a day will be enough for most people.

Do not take more than 100 micrograms (4,000 IU) of vitamin D a day as it could be harmful. This applies to adults, including pregnant and breastfeeding women and the elderly, and children aged 11 to 17 years.



FFS, it's smacking you in the face and you can't see the correlation. between vitamin D and the Immune system, and it's ability to deal with this virus..
I think we are all aware that the better a condition our immune system is in, the more likely we are to avoid infections taking root and making us ill.

However, a good and balanced diet is usually the first place to start, with vitamin supplements being just that, if we think we are low or as a precaution in Winter.

The bottom line is that covid-19 is spread by human contact, surface contact or short distance carriage by respiratory droplets.

Avoiding all three massively reduces the risk of infection.
 
#9
And I will just add to what Randombloke has posted (thanks Steve - excellent) that it's not about whether or not you die of Covid - it's also about the impact on the NHS and whether or not it can do all the good things it usually does (overall excess mortality goes some way towards measuring this)
- and it's about long Covid (having a family member affected this way, I know directly how bad this can be)

Stay well everyone!
 

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