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No new Petrol or Diesel Cars from 2030

Mike Calvert

Moderator
Staff member
#1
Reckon this will be a concern for MOGAS availability for us?

I reckon that unless the cost of new electric vehicles falls dramatically, the market for used cars will persist far longer than it currently does - and as such the market demand will remain.

The only worry then being the financial viability - tipping point - for fuel stations where the margin on fuel is notoriously small, so lower volumes sold, with the accompanying reduction in foot fall for purchases in the fuel station, will see many marginal stations closing and our choice dwindling, but probably not for a good 10 years or more after than initial ban of new vehicles.

On the plus side though, that ban doesn't apply to Motorbikes, scooters, or bigger commercial vehicles - so that will help with sustaining business demand for fuel stations (y)

Hopefully by the time it could become a real problem for us, the battery and motor technology will have reached the point where they're a practical alternative for aero motors.... well, we can hope! :)
 

randombloke

Cross Country Pilot
#2
Reckon this will be a concern for MOGAS availability for us?

I reckon that unless the cost of new electric vehicles falls dramatically, the market for used cars will persist far longer than it currently does - and as such the market demand will remain.
Two issues remain, replacing all the petrol/diesel cars with electric ones still leads to the same level of congestion, and as the demand for fuel drops and the load on the grid increases, the extra charging required infrastructure will have to be paid for and the black hole in HMRC coffers with dropping fuel duty will have to be filled. The hybrid owners have to fill up with petrol or queue for charging.

My gut feeling is that the hybrid electric vehicles sold previously and up to now will be like the dial up modems from the 1990s, and there will be a hydrogen based answer. Hydrogen is more likely for airliners...

Interesting times but in the long term, the love affair with the car will be over if public transport can rise to the challenge.

If it can't, it'll be business as usual but with expensive road pricing...
 

DeadStick

Cross Country Pilot
#4
Petrol and derv prices will be artificially raised by governments with increased Taxes in the run up to electrification to make the change more attractive.
(They will have to do this as otherwise fossil fuel prices are set to plummet)

Running a private vehicle will I believe become a greater luxury than at present.
Mostly a good thing but with Some negative societal outcomes
 

Vincent

Administrator
Staff member
#5
The grid will be able to cope if everyone switches. They have already confirmed it in an episode of fully charged.

Tesla will get the full self driving sorted within the next few years which will make “transport as a service” a reality. When you can get a “robot taxi” for £0.20 per mile, why would you bother to own a car? It’s all about data, and they are collecting way more than anybody else.

As for actual EV’s. All I can say is that my wife’s Nissan Leaf is brilliant. Absolutely no service required. With one pedal driving, you don’t even need to touch the brakes.

As for running costs, she used to spend £80.00 per month in fuel for her Vauxhall Moka and now charges at work once a week for £0.00. My neighbors have one too, and they charge it on sunshine! Definitely the future for us fortunate enough to be able to charge at home.
 

randombloke

Cross Country Pilot
#6
The grid will be able to cope if everyone switches. They have already confirmed it in an episode of fully charged.
It's not that long ago we had power supply problems round here and power cuts when the local data centre got too power greedy. In France they have stepped fixed charges depending on your maximum allowed current drain, if the grid gets caned I can see that coming in here.

I haven't done the maths for the four terraced houses I live in the block of, but it would be interesting to work out if all four houses were charging a car overnight.

My mate's Leaf needed to be recharged at the airstrip for comfort, it couldn't do the return journey without a little tickle.

Of course, there's now a Kia with a much bigger range.

But it's the problem no one has thought of that trips things up...
 

MadamBreakneck

Cross Country Pilot
#7
It's not that long ago we had power supply problems round here and power cuts ...
But it's the problem no one has thought of that trips things up...
It is being thought of: eg "National Grid said that to enable the uptake of electric vehicles, the energy industry will need to focus on ensuring there is adequate network capacity in the right locations." [link] or [link] The question is who is going to fund it.

I wonder when we'll get the power and energy density equivalent of a Rotax 503 and 40 litres of mogas.
 
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MadamBreakneck

Cross Country Pilot
#8
..When you can get a “robot taxi” for £0.20 per mile, why would you bother to own a car? .
Probably so that you can travel when you choose rather than waiting for the "robot taxi" to come available. Maybe they could have a pricing system where you can bid for one to come straight away, perhaps one that was already on its way to someone else. :unsure: Does Uber have that problem?
 
#9
As an automotive industry 'insider', I have serious doubts abot the promises made:
1) it is easy for a 4 or 5 year term government to make promises for 10 years in the future - safe in the knowledge that they will not be held accountable for fulfilling or reneging on those promises.
2) Autonomous vehicles have a very long way to go before they can be in widespread use. This is not just limited by technology, but also legislation, public acceptance and secondary issues such as insurance.
3) The issues surrounding extraction and processing of materials for battery electric vehicles have yet to be addressed. Replacing today's headline issue (CO2) with heavy metal pollution in the oceans is no solution. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20150402-the-worst-place-on-earth

The real and simple solution to motor vehicle emissions is to break away from the paradigm of the 2 tonne family car (or 2.5 tonnes if it is battery electric). 90 years ago, an Austin 7 weighed 300kg and returned 40mpg with a sidevalve engine. A 21st century 'Austin 7' could be even lighter and would need only 20kW for adequate performance.
Unfortunately, there would be far less profit in a 'back to basics' light, simple car than there is in the current breed of 'sitting room on wheels' behemoths, so this route is unlikely to get the backing of the OEMs.
 
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#10
It is being thought of: eg "National Grid said that to enable the uptake of electric vehicles, the energy industry will need to focus on ensuring there is adequate network capacity in the right locations." [link] or [link] The question is who is going to fund it.

I wonder when we'll get the power and energy density equivalent of a Rotax 503 and 40 litres of mogas.
Sorry, that wasn't the point I was making, if we are discussing something then by definition it has been thought of, what I saying is that in a paradigm shift, or a re-orientation of all custom and practice, there will be things that trip us up.

Quick, glib example. My shite old diesel and an electric only car set off to Inverness. Best range on Electric is about 300 miles. Shite old diesel will do 750 on a tank. We can factor 1 or 2 recharges into the electric journey, 590 miles... If there are broken chargers or a queue, even more.

Of course, the flip side is that there will be positives we haven't thought of.

Agree with Peter about the Austin 7 example...

As for your second question, that's a hydrogen based answer...
 

RayP

Cross Country Pilot
#11
I drive a light car (500kg) which *can* get 40mpg but (unfortunately?) it has 200 HP rather than only 7 and accelerates from 0-60 in about 5 seconds.
No power steering, no ABS, no air-con, no radio, no electric windows etc

Wonder how many NCAP stars an Austin 7 would get?
 
#12
Wonder how many NCAP stars an Austin 7 would get?
It wouldn't get any but Peter's point is that we can build, with new technology, a 5 star NACP rating and perhaps 80mpg small car.

People don't want that. They want a small house on wheels.

A PHEV that weights 2.5 tons and has the aerodynamics of a barn door will not make efficient use of energy, regardless of what you power it with.

EVs and some PHEVs have seriously good aerodynamics, harking back to the Citroen GS of the 1970s.

It's good aerodynamics, efficient use of space and low weight that are needed in addition to the headline "electric vehicle".
 

RayP

Cross Country Pilot
#15
Mea culpa - I skim read
A PHEV that weights 2.5 tons and has the aerodynamics of a barn door
and
It's good aerodynamics ...that are needed in addition to the headline "electric vehicle"
and skipped over the sentence in between.

I completely agree that a light, efficient car could be made but there is a belief that only a big solid car will keep you safe. So the size war escalates - I'm surrounded by big heavy cars therefore I must get a bigger, heavier car to protect my family from them.
 

Trev C

Cross Country Pilot
#16
We have a Kia Optima PHEV
Just done 250 miles in it today, and even though it only has an all electric range of 31miles, ( which is normally sufficient for regular journeys )
Still averaged 79 mpg today.

Called for a coffee at a service station and noted that there was only 1 charging station, with a petrol BMW parked in front of it.
That`s where the problem lies
 

Vincent

Administrator
Staff member
#17
We have a Kia Optima PHEV
Just done 250 miles in it today, and even though it only has an all electric range of 31miles, ( which is normally sufficient for regular journeys )
Still averaged 79 mpg today.

Called for a coffee at a service station and noted that there was only 1 charging station, with a petrol BMW parked in front of it.
That`s where the problem lies
We are talking about 9 years in the future, and you are talking about the infrastructure that we have today. If we go back 10 years there was 1, yes that’s a ONE rapid charger in the UK.

Tesla currently have over 500 superchargers in the UK, and they are just getting started.

I will say it here, and will stand by it. We can come back in years to come to see if what I said does come to fruition. At least 3 major manufacturers of vehicles today won’t be around in 5 years time. And you can pick any from this bunch, Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Fiat, Jaguar, Honda... they are not moving fast enough, with a product that comes even close to Tesla. Tesla on the other hand are building new factories on 3 continents as I type this.
 
#18
At least 3 major manufacturers of vehicles today won’t be around in 5 years time. And you can pick any from this bunch, Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Fiat, Jaguar, Honda... they are not moving fast enough, with a product that comes even close to Tesla. Tesla on the other hand are building new factories on 3 continents as I type this.
This I agree with 100%.
 

Aerial

Cross Country Pilot
#19
Is anyone here 'into' kit cars? They used to be all the rage with car enthusiasts some years ago. Is a kit electric car a viable project for an enthusiast nowadays? The 'off the shelf' ones are so very expensive.
 

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